CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 11/02 - 06Z THU 12/02 2004
ISSUED: 10/02 18:57Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across Northeastern Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Long-wave trough placed over eastern Europe ... and upper jet points from the northern North Sea to northeastern Mediterranean. Over western Europe ... long-wave ridge will remain while short-wave trough is forecast to cut off over southeastern Europe on Thursday. The axis of this trough will cross the northern Mediterranean at the end of the forecast period. At lower levels ... high surface pressure is building over northern Europe. At its eastern flank ... very cold airmass spreads southward into southeastern Europe north of a cold front, that is expected over the Adriatic Sea on Wednesday evening. Downstream ... model output suggests a convergence line reaching from northern Greece to Sardinia. South of this line ... warm air advection and DCVA is forecast, yielding to rather strong UVM over the southern Adriatic at the end of the forecast period. However ... today's soundings indicate a strong inversion over the central Metiterranean due to cold boundary-layer airmass. It is not expected that low-level airmass will recover substantially during the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the convergence zone, but should be rather shallow and weak.

DISCUSSION

...Northeastern Mediterranean...
Ahead of approaching short-wave trough ... another convergence line is forecast over northeastern Mediterranean, reaching western Turkey on Thursday morning. Affected airmass shows some boundary-layer moisture underneath a inversion at 750 hPa, and model output suggests some CAPE in the order of 100 J/kg. Along the convergence ... showers and thunderstorms are expected due to UVM south of the approaching trough. Moderate vertical shear is expected with SWerly surface winds and westerly flow aloft. Severe thunderstorms seems to be not likely ATTM.

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